Nigeria’s energy policy strategy must make gas a mere busstop with renewable energy as the real station, according to strategic advice rolled out at a policy dialogue on sustainable transition.

Part of the eight-point recommendations is that renewable and gas policies should be framed under a unified energy strategy that transitions gas as a “bridge fuel” while accelerating renewable energy deployment.

The policy dialogue on sustainable transition which took place last week in Abuja looked at how to balance gas and renewables pathways in Nigeria’s transition strategy’.

It was organized by the Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI) in collaboration with the African Initiative for Transparency, Accountability, and Responsible Leadership (AFRITAL).

The analysis revealed a risk in resource allocation in the gas strategy which may see gas as the final bus stop, and push significant investments in gas infrastructure, risking overshadowing renewable energy initiatives, especially in resource-constrained scenarios.

It thus recommended that the policies aimed at market liberalization, energy access, and emissions reduction should exhibit strategic alignment. It also recommended what it called ‘environmental trade-offs, saying, “While gas policies reduce flaring and emissions, their long-term reliance risks conflict with renewable-specific environmental objectives. Integrating life-cycle emissions assessments into planning could resolve such disputes.”

The group also recommended investment synergies by creating hybrid energy programmes that integrate gas and renewables such as solar-powered gas processing facilities or gas-grid-supported mini-grids which can enhance complementarity.

Energy policy makers were also advised to focus on demand-driven policy frameworks by conducting comprehensive energy demand assessments and integrate findings into policy formulation. They were advised to strengthen stakeholder engagement to ensure data-driven policy development reflective of actual needs.

They were further advised to: “Develop workforce transition plans incorporating skills mapping and training programs; to establish partnerships with industries and educational institutions to prepare workers for renewable energy roles;

“To design new modular gas infrastructure to accommodate future renewable energy integration, and to implement policies incentivizing retrofitting existing facilities for renewable applications;

“To establish renewable energy training hubs to build local technical capacity, and to partner with international agencies for knowledge transfer and promote innovation in project structuring to meet international financing standards;

“To delineate responsibilities between regulatory and operational bodies, and to create a centralized coordinating agency for harmonizing energy transition efforts across sectors;

“To conduct a holistic energy policy review towards establishing a policy integration task force to align goals across institutions and promote complementary strategies.”

The policy dialogue participants recalled that Nigeria committed to achieving net zero emissions by 2060 by leveraging gas as a transition fuel to cleaner energy sources. The team also recalled that in May 2024, the government published details of its Decade of Gas (DoG) initiative, four years after Nigeria’s Energy Transition Plan (ETP) was launched.

Before this, they also named previous renewable energy policies such as Vision 30:30:30, which all demonstrate the government’s commitment to scaling up renewable energy within Nigeria’s energy mix.

It was on this basis that the NRGI and the AfriTAL organized a Policy Dialogue to allow critical policymakers and implementers to reflect on the articulated gas and renewable pathways and how these pathways could be streamlined to achieve Nigeria’s ambitions for its energy transition. 

The welcome address delivered by Dr Louis Ogbeifun, Executive Director, AFRITAL, who set the context, highlighted expectations, articulated aspirations, and exhorted all stakeholders to take critical action. Dr Ogbeifun highlighted the government’s ambitious plans to achieve carbon neutrality and energy transition, driven by initiatives like the Nigeria Gas Commercialization Programme (NGCFP) and the Energy Transition Plan (ETP).

He emphasized, however, that an equitable transition is more important than simply transitioning, highlighting that Africa has enjoyed only 3% of investments that can drive the energy transition. He added that despite having 40% of global solar energy potential, Africa generates only 1% of global power, signifying a dearth of investments.

He stated: “Nigeria has great renewable energy potential but needs to prioritize and right-size its energy frameworks.” He reiterated that there is potential for conflict if the energy transition is not just, and that vulnerable communities may become stranded due to divestments from fossil fuel.

He emphasized that Nigeria is at a disadvantage in meeting these requirements due to systemic challenges and that it is key to focus on local solutions between now and 2060. He urged all players to prioritise synergy to achieve the objectives of the energy mix and commended NRGI for driving efforts toward deepening synergies.

It was observed that although all stakeholders are talking about just and equitable transition, but that evidence shows a reluctance on the side of lenders to support gas as a cleaner energy option towards renewable energy end. The lenders were rather said to be pushing for early decarbonization, which incidentally includes gas.

This was made clear by Aaron Sayne, in a presentation, who said: “Investors are willing to support renewable finance, yet Africa only has 3% of the total expended the world over, with South Africa, Morocco, Kenya, Ethiopia, and Senegal dominating the market. More worrisome is that lenders charge African countries/companies up to 700% of what they charge Europe or North America.

“The result is that Africa has at least 40% of the world’s solar potential but with less than 2% of all solar panels.”

The policy experts wondered how equitable and just this could be, thus urging that finding a balance between investments in gas as a transition or destination oil and investment in renewables is critical and auspicious in answering how Nigeria can care for vulnerable communities, provide vocational training and financial incentives for youth and local businesses, etc.

The report said: “How do we ensure that the women who dry fish with the flared gas are engaged and let them know they would have better and affordable alternatives when the flare can no longer support their businesses? How do we ensure that Nigeria can use its crude to diversify into cleaner energy without carrying the burden of overloaded debt burden in the face of vandalism, crude oil theft, unstable foreign exchange regimes, and insecurity, which those agitating for us to fast track our energy transition?”

“How do we get affordable energy for our women to cook? How many people can conveniently convert their cars to CNG-powered systems at our poverty level?”

Realizing all the above, the panel said finding that the endpoint of the Decade of Gas Initiative is about six years away and that 2060 for the net-zero commitment still has a long way to go, there is need to engage policymakers to speak transparently. “In the end, this will make it possible for all stakeholders to brainstorm and advise our policymakers to make informed decisions about our energy transition roadmaps.”

Tengi George-Ikoli, Senior Officer NRGI, and the Nigeria Programme Lead, delivered the opening remarks. Also, George-Ikoli and Sayne highlighted the pitfalls of non-complementarity and how the government can address them. Doris Agbevivi shared experiences from Ghana, emphasizing what can be learned from the Ghanaian e-mobility initiative.

The policy dialogue initiative attracted top stakeholders in the energy sector such as the Nigeria Liquefied Natural Gas Company Limited (NLNG), the Nigeria Infrastructure Advisory Facility (NIAF), and the Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (NEITI), who also shared goodwill messages.