As Nigeria prepares for the second and most crucial leg of the 2019 elections there are indications that some parts of the country will witness electoral challenges, violence being an important aspect. This would be a natural fallout of the desperation of politicians to grab power at all cost.

The reasons for this desperation are very obvious ranging from the determination of some sitting governors implicated in diverse infractions – financial and violent crimes – to evade the consequences of their actions to the frantic quest to escape poverty by some politicians and several other issues in-between.

Saturday’s elections will be for governorship and state houses of assembly across the country but for Rivers State, it will include national assembly elections in areas where elections could not hold on February 23, 2019. These areas include Ahoada-West, Akuku-Toru, Bonny, Emohua, Ikwerre, and Okrika Local Government Areas.

Naturally, Rivers State being a microcosm of the volatile Niger Delta, will have a large dose of the violent dimensions of the elections. Thuggery, ballot snatching, assassinations, arson and several other negative paradigms define elections in Rivers State where the struggle to take or retain political power is an intense one where no prisoners are taken. They are either burnt or buried alive.

Back in 2015, this struggle saw the transformation of Rivers State into a killing field which saw the killing of over 3,000 persons and thousands of others unaccounted for. This has informed the massive deployment of the military across the state weeks before the election. Before this, various kingpins of criminal gangs including ex-militants, cultists, kidnappers, and many others were targeted for elimination by the security agencies.

A security source told Kristina Reports that the aim was clean up the state ahead of the 2019 polls. One prominent casualty was Don Wanney, the notorious criminal that was terrorizing the Orashi region comprising Ogba/Egbema/Ndoni, Ahoada-West, Ahoada-East, and Abua/Odual LGAs. The military in concert with the Department of State Services (DSS) tracked him to Imo State where he was killed in a gun duel with the security forces.

Though there is heavy deployment of security operatives, there are strong indications that this would not deter purveyors of violence and other infractions. The February 23 fracas in Abonnema, Akuku-Toru LGA that saw the killing of four soldiers and several civilian casualties gives credence to this.

The situation is not assuaged by the rhetoric of politicians clamouring for the exclusion of the military in the security arrangements for the polls. Worse were the relentless allegations of the state Governor, Nyesom Wike that “the Nigerian military was killing Rivers people,” a statement many believe was inciting and a call to anarchy. Criminals under different guise were more emboldened to confront the security agencies in their attempts to scuttle or compromise the polls.

This development will ordinarily create huge challenges for the security agencies to manage. For instance, in Bonny LGA on February 23, in the face of a stalemate engendered by the disagreement between the APC and the PDP over the integrity of electoral materials and officials, the security agencies had to intervene to prevent a break of law and order when thugs loyal to both parties engaged in a free-for-all. Kristina Reports correspondent on ground at the INEC office witnessed the dilemma of the security operatives on how to manage the situation. Even when they shot into the air to disperse the hoodlums and restore calm, they were later accused by the Governor of supporting the APC.

These are flashpoints or pressure points in the security mapping of the state and the likely triggers for trouble in the areas.

The Andoni/Opobo/Nkoro axis will see the flexing of muscles between stalwarts of the APC and PDP who would seek to assert their party’s influence in the area. The power tussle between PDP national chairman, Uche Secondus, his political godson and cousin, former deputy governor, Tele Ikuru, and ex-militant, George Adumu, on one side fighting to assert PDP’s control of the area, and director general of the Nigeria Maritime Administration and Safety Agency (NIMASA), Dakuku Peterside, former state chairman of the APC, Davies Ikanya, and former commissioner for works and director general of the Free Rivers Movement, Sampson Ngerebara on the other holding ground for the APC will surely task the peace in the area.  

Both parties will strive to have the backing of the security agencies. The PDP guys may bank heavily on the exploits of Adumu, who after his release in early days of Wike’s administration has allegedly been terrorizing the Andoni area. Ikuru, as a former deputy governor, still wields considerable influence in the area.

The result of this power tussle will be widespread violence in the areas where each side would seek to counter the other’s influence. Four APC chieftains were killed on the eve of the presidential elections. Parts of Ngo, Agwut-Obolo, Egendem, Asarama, Ibotirem, Ataba, and Ikuru Town may witness pockets of violence as they are natural battlegrounds during elections. Nkoro and Opobo Towns would be relatively peaceful as they have always been.  

Emohua, Ikwerre and Obio/Akpor and parts of Port Harcourt LGAs will remain flashpoints of violence as the Minister of Transport, Rotimi Amaechi, and his erstwhile chief of staff and current Governor of Rivers State, Nyesom Wike would be facing to each other to exert control of the Ikwerre political space. The interplay of forces by their ‘boys’ will consequently exert intense pressure on the peace in the area.

Natural battlegrounds will be Abuloma, Borikiri, Diobu, D-Line, and Elekahia in Port Harcourt;  Wike’s hometown, Rumueprikom, Rumuigbo, Rumuodomaya, Ozuoba, and Eagle Island in Obio/Akpor; Amaechi’s hometown, Ubima, Choba, Omerelu, Elele, Igwuruta, and Isiokpo in Ikwerre; and Edeoha, Emohua, Oduoha, Ogbakiri, and Rumuji in Emohua LGAs.

Isiokpo, the collation centre for the House of Assembly and House of Representatives elections for the area would also witness serious violence as thugs loyal to both sides would slug it out with security agencies to have a say on which party wins the area.

Emohua, home LGA of ‘political bulldozer’, Sergeant Awuse, ‘Akpako master’ and APC’s campaign director general, Chidi Lloyd and Wike’s chief of staff, Emeka Woke, will retain its reputation of being a political war zone as both men will go head-to-head in holding down the area for their parties.       

In Rumuigbo, Chikordi Dike and Lawrence Chuku will lock horns with President General of GDI, Bright Amaewhule, his brother, Martins, House of Representatives member, Kingsley Chinda, and his brother Michael. Samuel Nwanosike would attempt to scuttle things for Amaechi in Ikwerre but would be met with the brute force of the federal troops there.

These men and their activities would heavily task the security apparatus in the Ikwerre axis and the concomitant result would be low voter turnout.

Aside Bonny, Asari-Toru, Akuku-Toru, and Degema are expected to be volatile as the ‘original bad boys’ converge on the area. APC chairman, Ojukaye Flag-Amachree and his henchmen will hold out against the onslaught of former ex-militant and now PDP House of Representatives candidate, Farah Dagogo, Akuku-Toru LGA chairman, Roland Sekibo, and Sobomabo Jackrich popularly known as Egberipapa as the latter group attempt to snatch the victory for PDP. Like 2015, the dogfight between these men will ensure there is nowhere to hide across Kalabari land.

Additionally, Asari Dokubo will want to repeat his 2015 feat of forcing INEC to declare his sister, Boma Goodhead winner. This may not excite other stakeholders who may attempt to stop him and that will add colour to the spate of violence that the region will face.

Generally, Kula, Abesa, Degema, Abonnema, Buguma, Bakana, Sombreiro River, New Calabar River, and a few other communities may be too hot to handle thus tasking the security apparatus there. In 2015, the gun fight started on Friday, eve of the polls through to Sunday thus effectively preventing the conduct of the elections in the area. There may be a repeat performance with the preferred candidate of the APC and its leader, Amaechi coming from Kula, the incumbent may stoke enough turbulence to frustrate elections there.

Bonny LGA will be relatively peaceful except any of the two parties – APC and PDP – renege on the peace pact they signed at the palace of the Amanyanabo of Bonny. Nevertheless, there will be a tensed up effort to assert their control. The APC will be gunning for changing the current situation where the PDP has held sway since 2015 with literally nothing to show for it. And they will be taking advantage of the angst against the PDP and its leader, Wike by the people of the area to achieve that while the PDP will bank on the assumed predisposition of the people towards the party to overrun the day.

The norm has always been the alleged supply of fake materials during the polls and swapping to the original result sheets after to favour the party in power. The attempt to repeat same sparked a free-for-all during the presidential polls but for the intervention of the security agencies the town would have been up in flames.

Stakeholders on both sides, especially, the chairman of Bonny LGA, David Irimagha, are currently urging calm and respect for the integrity of the process. Though tempers flew high on February 23, Irimagha has corroborated the leader of the APC in Bonny LGA, George Tolofari, to calm frayed nerves ahead of Saturday’s polls.   

The Etche/Omuma axis will see two APC stalwarts, Ogbonna Nwuke and Allwell Onyesoh, and the Nwuzi brothers, Ambrose and Ephraim, on opposite sides of the fight. Though still in APC, Onyesoh, as part of the purported deal between Wike and Magnus Abe, will be working for the PDP. He will be assisted by Ephraim and Kelechi Nworgu, the House of Assembly candidate for Omuma. Nwuke and Ambrose will seek to assert APC’s control in the area.

Though violence may not be witnessed in Etche, same may not be said for Omuma where unconfirmed reports say Kelechi had allegedly foisted the rule of the gun.  

An election battleground any day, Ogoni will see more than fireworks during Saturday’s polls as Barry Mpigi leads hordes of his ‘boys’ against Oji Ngofa’s. lined up behind Mpigi will be Senator Lee Maeba, secretary to the state government, Kenneth Kobani, a former deputy speaker of the state House of Assembly, Dum Deekor, and former Khana LGA chairman, Gregory Nwidam. Ngofa will have the backing of APC deputy national secretary, Victor Giadom, Akpobari Celestine, Joe Poroma and several others.

Yeghe, Bori, Sakpenwa, Kpor, Bera, and Eleme, among other communities may turn to killing fields when these political juggernauts meet at the battlefield. Mpigi is famed as the generalissimo of ‘bad boys’ across Ogoniland while Ngofais feared in Eleme. This election would settle the fact of their supremacy in politics but that maybe at the expense of innocent lives.

George Sekibo, a veteran senator and candidate of the PDP in the 2019 polls, will be joined by his kinsmen, Bright Gogo, Evans Bipi, with the hidden hands of Mama Peace and the traditional ruler of Okochiri, King Ateke Tom to deliver Okrika and Ogu-Bolo. On the other hand, APC strong woman, Maureen Tamuno would be in his way to ensure the APC delivers AAC candidate, Awara Biokpomabo in the area. She will be complimented by several APC stalwarts in the area.

Generally, there may not be much violence as King Tom has insisted that all political actors eschew peace across Wakrike land. Incidences of Thuggery, ballot snatching, and other irregularities may however not be ruled out completely.

Since the killing of Don Wanny, the Orashi region of the state comprising Ogba/Egbema/Ndoni, Ahoada-West, Ahoada-East, and Abua/Odual have witnessed a reduction in violent crime. But with the elections two days away, all is said not to be well in the area as the gladiators are poised to deliver for their political parties.

PDP chairman, Felix Obuah will face up to a former chairman of Abua/Odual LGA, Udi Odum. Obuah’s former ally, Elemchukwu Ogbowu may also join the fray depending on where he stands to benefit from. He contested against Betty Apiafi for the Senate seat but lost. Sources say he was back to support his friend Obuah. Marshall Uwom, deputy speaker of the state House of Assembly, would also be fighting to return to the house.

The interplay of interest in opposite directions may spark violence in the region as all of them are regarded as masters of the game and no pushovers by political pundits.

On the whole, Rivers State may witness the worst forms of political violence this year. Though the security agencies have been proactive in their efforts at curtailing any outbreak of violence before, during and after the polls, there efforts were being undermined by the inciting rhetoric of politicians. The natural consequence of this development will be low voter turnout as many were already apprehensive about their safety.